An End and A Beginning

I've tried "unpacking" the implications of last week's announcement that the South Stream pipeline is no more, in a column for RT, and another for Antiwar.com.

Despite all the wailing and gnashing of teeth, I think the Empire's quisling cult is celebrating prematurely. South Stream's demise was primarily aimed at punishing Bulgaria's treachery, as Gazprom's CEO Aleksey Miller pretty much spelled out over the weekend - but also effectively destroyed all the Western plans to bypass Russia using Turkey.

Andrew Korybko has some interesting thoughts as to why Ankara defected. But I expect Washington and Berlin (Brussels is for show, after all) won't spend much time trying to figure that out, choosing instead to use all means at their disposal to bring the Turks in line. Good luck with that!

As for Serbia, well, notice the Russo-Turkish agreement says nothing as to where the Europe-bound pipes will go through after they reach Greece. Does anyone really think it would be through Albania, a client of Washington ever more than Bulgaria could ever aspire to be? And if not there, then perforce north, through FYROM and Serbia - which would require the stabilization of both, at the very least through the curbing of Washington-backed Albanian aggression. Given that Washington has relied on Turkey (and Germany) to do much of the work in actually supporting the Albanians, while the US sat back and basked in the adulation, let's just say that calculation will now need to be revised.

While it is certainly possible that Russia will just throw Serbia under the proverbial bus, I don't think that's likely. That line about the West wanting to destroy Russia like it destroyed Yugoslavia, in Vladimir Putin's big annual speech, was there very much on purpose. Unfortunately, while I would love to see Serbia take the lead on this, I don't know if the country - infested by the quisling cultists as it is - can muster the strength right now. As one Serbian commentator describes it (link to original, translation mine):

"Looking at Serbia and Russia over the past 25 years, one could say that they are comrades in arms whose mutual understanding has sometimes been better and sometimes worse. But one of them has been left behind, wounded and bleeding out, behind enemy lines. That is why it's Russia's move today, not Serbia's."

Call me naive, but I have faith that Russia will come through. For its own sake, if nothing else. The fact I can't see the signs of it happening doesn't mean it's not in the works: it just means the enemy can't see it either.

Moments of Transition: Overload

New column over at Antiwar.com:

At a meeting in March 2009, Secretary Clinton presented her Russian counterpart with a red button that was supposed to read "Reset" in Russian. Instead, it read "Overload." It seemed like an innocent mistake, a syllable lost in translation. But was it, really?

During his Moscow visit, Obama said he wants Russia as a "partner". Somehow, I don't think that word means what he thinks it means...

Above the Law

On June 24, Bulgarian authorities arrested Agim Ceku, formerly a general in the Croatian Army and the terrorist KLA. They did so pursuant to an Interpol warrant, based on the charges filed against Ceku in Serbia in 1999. For a moment, it looked like the Bulgarians might actually abide by international law and extradite Ceku to Belgrade for a trial. Not for long, though.

Bulgaria is, after all, a loyal client of the Empire. It is a member of the EUSSR and NATO. It recognized the "Independent State of Kosovo" when told to do so. Why arrest Ceku, then? Most likely the Bulgarian law enforcement decided to follow the regulations and honor the Interpol warrant, and let the politicians sort it out. Which they did - in the same exact fashion as the Slovenians in 2003 and Hungarians in 2004. After some Imperial officials made some phone calls, Ceku was released.

The authorities in Serbia made noises of protest, but it was abundantly clear they didn't really want Ceku to be extradited. Putting Ceku on trial would have forced them to actually do something about the fact that the Empire was behind the occupation and separation of Kosovo. The Belgrade quislings are walking the tightrope between serving their foreign masters and avoiding a potential popular revolt. Talking tough on Kosovo but doing Empire's bidding in practice is a recipe that seems to be working for them, for now. Ceku in court would have upended that applecart.

This, by the way, is also the reason they can't rescind the warrants for Ceku, Thaci and other KLA leaders, issued a decade ago. They need them to maintain appearances, but God forbid they actually act on them. As one Serbian commentator put it, "our government is about as responsible as the Bulgarians are principled."

At least Colombia was honest, deporting Ceku last month when he dared show his face there for an international conference.

Next thing you know, Bulgaria will actually apologize to the KLA regime in occupied Pristina for "insulting" them by obeying the law. I'm sure Bulgarian officials have already abased themselves before an Imperial legate for creating such an annoyance in the first place. So, Ceku walks, Belgrade breathes a sigh of relief, and the sordid tragedy continues to play out, until the Serbs perish or the Empire runs out of reality. Whatever comes first.