Wednesday, June 25, 2014

Ukraine: Behind the Ceasefire

What's behind the Kiev junta's offer of "ceasefire" and "talks" with the two regions in the East? A genuine effort to achieve peace, or a smokescreen for another attempt to subjugate all of Ukraine to the pro-Imperial, Nazi-dominated regime?

I was one of the guests debating this in today's CrossTalk, with Eric Kraus in Moscow and John B. Quigley in Columbus, Ohio. The embedded video is not yet available, but you can watch the show at the link above.

Between the knowledge that "Ukraine" is about to sign a treaty with the EU (which the EU itself doesn't want, but is being made to sign by guess who), and the fact that events in that country are being directed using the same script created by the West for Yugoslavia, I get the feeling that the ceasefire was a trick. Especially since it didn't hold.

I would not be the slightest bit surprised if the EU put forth a motion to deploy an "international presence" in the East, disarm the rebels (but not the Nazi Guard or oligarchs' militias, as those would become "legal government troops") and buy the Kiev regime some time to get money and weapons from the Empire, in hopes of staging something like "Flash" or "Storm." Sure, Poroshenko and the Nazis aren't thinking long-term, but the people they are taking orders from do. Meanwhile, the media are already claiming Russia has "blinked" and "capitulated" by not sending in the troops - when they aren't lying about Russia having sent troops, that is.

There is something Eric Kraus said that we didn't have time to discuss, but it's very interesting. Namely, the EU treaty would destroy the industry in the East and force Russia to seal the border. While Kraus thinks this will hurt the Ukrainian economy - and he's not wrong - the junta doesn't care about that. It doesn't even care that by strangling the East it's destroying the very tax base that has enabled the west - the stronghold of Banderist and Russophobic "Ukrainianism" - to survive. Had economic considerations been factoring into any of their actions, they wouldn't have staged a coup in February, or started a civil war later.

There is no solidarity among the oligarchs. At best, they prop up one another for short-term gain, but always ready to devour the power and money of whichever one of them falters (e.g. Yanukovich). To me, the EU deal is a tool to bankrupt the East (never mind that the rest of the country would follow) and force it into submission, counting on Russia having to seal off the border to avoid the flood of duty-free EU goods - and then blaming that for the ensuing economic hardship in Kiev-controlled territories.

Problem is, by doing this they've left the people of the East with nothing to lose. Even if Kiev offered them federalization - which it won't - why would they take it? There is nothing for them in a Ukraine that just became a strip-mine colony for the EU. Conversely, independence or union with Russia becomes that much more appealing. 


Meezer said...

This isn't going to end well for the Banderists. The longer this drags out, the worse it will get for them.

Michael said...

The Russians have complained that the EU-Ukraine trade agreement would allow Ukrainians to import EU goods duty-free and sell them in Russia duty-free, thereby threatening Russian industries. This will only happen if Russian customs officials are blind, stupid or corrupt. EU goods arriving at the Russian-Ukrainian border should be easy to identify and import duty can be applied. Some items are certain to slip through but it won’t threaten the Russian economy. I therefore don’t see the need for Russia to close its borders with the Ukraine, and certainly not the border that is under the control of the Donbas freedom-fighters.

CubuCoko said...

@ Meezer: I agree, but their bosses (the Empire) don't care what happens to the Banderists, so long as they do the job they were assigned.

@ Michael: Well, right now Russia and Ukraine have a free-trade treaty, meaning a relatively open border. So if they started inspecting shipments, they'd be in violation of the treaty - and you bet the Banderists and the Western media would scream to high heaven about that. Perhaps Moscow should declare Ukraine in violation of the treaty as soon as the EU deal is signed... because that'd be true. No treaty, no problem.

robert49rml said...

The reality is that the EU is depending on the culture of corruption that exists is Russia as well. Mafia getting duty free goods to "market" sounds like a winner for the West. Let's see how Putin handles this.