Official results of the Serbian elections haven't been released yet, but the EUphoric Democrats are already claiming total victory. Everyone's got a right to an opinion, of course - but not to their own facts.
Well, what about the facts? According to CESID, a pro-Western election monitoring NGO, the May 11 election results are as follows:
Democratic Party/G17 : 103 seats
Serbian Radical Party (SRS): 77 seats
Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS)/NS: 30 seats
Socialist Party of Serbia/PUPS: 20 seats
Liberal Democratic Party (LDP): 13 seats
SDA: (Muslim parties) 4 seats
MK (Hungarian parties): 2 seats
KAL (Presevo valley Albanians): 1 seat
Total seats in the parliament: 250
If I understand correctly, it takes 126 mandates to swear in a cabinet. Let's assume the Democrats will get the LDP on board, as well as the Hungarians, Muslims and Albanians. That's still only 123 mandates.
But if the Radicals, Socialists and the DSS make a deal... they have 127 mandates right there. A majority. A government.
Oh, I suppose it is theoretically possible for the Democrats to court the Socialists, but wait - aren't the Socialists the "hardline ultra-nationalists," the party of "the late dictator Slobodan Milosevic"? Hard to imagine the self-proclaimed postmodern democratic reformers whose wellspring of legitimacy is the coup against Milosevic in October 2000 actually contemplating any sort of cooperation with them. Anyone who can see the Socialists in the same government as LDP has got to be on some powerful hallucinogens.
Now, anything is possible, in theory. But in practice, the only way the Democrats will have won this election is if they can somehow defeat the math that says they do not have a majority to form a government.